The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened slightly higher in the night session and fluctuated upward, with overall macro sentiment providing strong support. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on January 12, 2026:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) opened slightly higher in the night session and fluctuated upward, closing at 359,980 yuan/mt, up 3.15%, driven by strong macro sentiment.

Macro: (1) Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Action Plan for Supporting Advanced Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrading (2026-2028)," which mentioned carrying out the "AI+Manufacturing" empowerment initiative, cultivating a team of frontier deployment engineers (FDEs), supporting enterprises in applying cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence large models, developing industry models and industrial intelligent agents, and enhancing digital and intelligent levels. It supports enterprises in applying independent basic software and industrial software in key areas such as R&D design, physical simulation, and production control. By 2027, large enterprises will be promoted to achieve full coverage of digital and intelligent applications. Implement a new round of the smart factory navigation plan; by 2028, large enterprises will achieve full coverage of smart factories, with robot density increasing to 600 units per 10,000 people, and the digitalization level of intelligent manufacturing equipment reaching over 70%. (2) Data from the Passenger Car Association shows that passenger NEV retail sales reached 1.337 million units in December, up 2.6% YoY and 1.2% MoM; cumulative retail sales from January to December reached 12.809 million units, up 17.6%. Conventional fuel passenger vehicle retail sales were 920,000 units in December, down 30% YoY and up 2% MoM; cumulative retail sales from January to December were 10.94 million units, down 9%.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in January. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption.

Spot market: On the demand side, the recent phased decline in tin prices has weakened the wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises, stimulating rigid restocking in end-use industries such as electronics and solder. Additionally, strong demand from emerging sectors like AI computing and PV has provided support for tin prices, but high prices have also suppressed some downstream procurement, leading to market transactions being dominated by rigid demand.

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